"David Short" <David.no.Short@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:fuig9t$arv$1@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> prs geek wrote:
>> Danny Graves?
>> Paul Wilson?
>> Look at Gagne yesterday? I know about the surgeries on he and Wilson,
but
>> Gagne looked beaten. I almost felt sorry for him, but I'm glad we won.
So
>> many of these pitchers fall from grace and can't recover. Then, there's
>> guys like Smoltz, et al that are still respectable.
>
> Well, neither Graves or Wilson were good bets to continue their success.
> When projecting a pitchers future success, look at strikeouts, walks and
> batting average on balls in play.
>
> A pitcher that doesn't strike people out (like Graves or Wilson)is
likely
> operating at the edge of his ability to be successful. Chances are that
if
> he has to make adjustments, he's screwed. Somebody like Smoltz, a
pitcher
> with a higher strikeout rate, has a bit more latitude to adjust his
style.
>
> Likewise, a pitcher that gives up a bunch of walks is going to be in
> trouble if he gets a bit worse.
>
> Batting average on balls in play is a bit different. That's an indicator
> that can actually work either way. If a guy is giving up too many hits
on
> balls in play, it could mean that he just flat out sucks and needs
> replaced. If the other indicators show nothing wrong, a high BAPIP is
> likely just noise and is a decent indicator that a pitcher will start
> doing better as this measurement snaps back into place.
>
>> How about steroids? Just curious on your thoughts.
> That's a leap. You think Gagne was using steroids before? I think he had
> some awesome years as a low inning closer in a pitcher's park and when
his
> arm went he's had trouble adapting anywhere else.
Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Graves was on the juice.
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