Ron Johnson wrote:
> On Apr 21, 12:44 pm, David Short
>
> (snip solid stuff.)
>
> Just to add on to David's point. Pitchers are inherently
> unpredictable, but nothing (simple) predicts how much a
> pitcher has left in his career better than K rate.
For a "young" pitcher K Rate works fine.
After ....I suppose 39 you have to take cir***stances into account as
well. There are a handful of guys (Ryan, Clemens...there are others) who
could probably pitch forever if they wanted to. Sometimes they don't
want to switch roles. Sometimes, they just look up and say "I'm done."
>>> If Clemens was doing them, then a LOT of those guys were doing them,
IMO.
>> That's probably the case.
>
> However there's no real basis to assume that any odd career arc
> is driven by PEDs. I mean look at Jim Hickman and Cito Gaston in 1970.
Yeah. That's the killer. PED are much more likely being used by somebody
like Juan Castro in order to stay into the big leagues as they are by
somebody like Dunn to make themselves 2% better. (That's not meant to
imply that either Castro or Dunn were ever using. Just examples of
fringe and established players that reds fans should be familiar with.)
> Eric Walker is one of the few usenet veterans who has collected
> regular paychecks from MLB teams. He's put up a fascinating and
> well researched site:
>
> http://steroids-and-baseball.com/
>
> Very much swimming against the mainstream, but there's nothing
> there he can't back up. Almost required reading if you
> want to know what you're talking about on PEDs and baseball,
> even if you don't come to the same conclusions as Eric did.
Interesting stuff.
dfs
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