On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:00:58 -0400, "Bob Braun"
<oxinfla@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>Can you be honest? Bottom of the ninth, two outs, game on the
>line...........who would you rather have at the plate? Josh Hamilton or
>Adam Dunn?
Can I be honest? Not sure I like the "tone" of that question, but...
Dunn.
>As I was typing that, in mid sentence, he just hit a double in the bottom
of
>the 10th with one out.
Adam Dunn: 262 Home Runs in Career, 0 leading off game, 7 game-ending,
83 go ahead, 30 tying (43% tied or gave the Reds the lead)
Here are his splits:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01
Look at Late and Close, look at 2 Outs with RISP, look at High Leverage
situations. Dunn is at worst in the mid-upper 90s in tOPS+ in all of
those situations. In the 9th inning overall he has a tOPS+ of 90.
Josh Hamilton: 40 Home Runs in Career, 1 leading off game, 1
game-ending, 12 go ahead, 4 tying (40% tied or gave his team the lead)
Splits:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=hamiljo03
Does better than Dunn in 2 outs with RISP, much, much worse in high
leverage situations, a bit worse in Late and Close situations. In the
9th inning overall he has a tOPS+ of 88 (2 points below Dunn's number).
Dunn is significantly better with the game tied.
It is not clear at all that Hamilton is the better 9th inning, game on
the line choice in the most general sense. I certainly would want him up
on a 2 strike count (not that either is any good, but that's relevant
with 2 strikes) and I know who I'd want the ball hit to in the 9th
inning of a close game. When you also factor in that Dunn has been doing
this for 8 years at the Major League level (despite that Hamilton is
only 1.5 years younger at 27), I'd take Dunn without blinking.
******************************************************************
Kevin McClave
"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************
|
