On Apr 19, 1:34 am, "Swillabrew" <d...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Winn wrote:
> > On Apr 18, 11:12 pm, Chris <> wrote:
> >> On Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:07:03 -0700 (PDT), Padredog
>
> >> <padredo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> >>> ...6-0 D-backs in the 1st. Maddox is 2-10 lifetime against them.
>
> >> No worries, we have two hits through 5 1/3.
>
> > Who was worse the offense or the defense? I say the blame is
> > basically equal in this game. The expectation/average performance is
> > about 4.5 runs (except Petco where it might be 4.0). So the offense
> > scored 4.5 fewer runs than expected and the defense (mostly Maddux)
> > gave up 4.5 runs more than expected.
>
> Maddux got shelled, but it's pretty hard to win when you fail to score
any
> runs. I'm not sure where you got your expectation/average performance
> numbers, but through 17 games the team has scored 50 runs, which works
out
> to just under 3 per game. We need a big bat in the heart of our lineup
or
> we might as well give up now.
>
> Go Pads !
In 2007 there were 12388 runs scored against NL clubs in 2594 team
games. That comes to 4.78 runs/game. They scored 12208 in the same
games =4.71. Remember that interleague messes with the evenness of
these numbers. Also in a small number of these games a DH was used so
maybe 4.7 is a good number to use instead of the 4.5 I quoted.
Lets look at the Padres. In 2007 games at Petco the Pads scored 323
and gave up 278 =601 runs/162 team games = 3.71 runs/team/game. On
the road they scored 418 and gave up 388 = 806/164 team games
(remember extra game in Colorado) = 4.91 run/game. Padres averaged
5.10/game on road, opponent averaged 4.73/game.
Let's look at totals. Padres scored 741/163 games =4.54 game.
Opponents scored 666/163 games = 4.09 game. Both teams together
scored 1407/326 games = 4.32 runs/game.
What does all of this mean. 2008 is a pretty small sample size so
far. In 2007 you could expect a team in a Padres game to score 3.71
runs/game at Petco and 4.91 on the road. That's means that offense is
suppressed 24% at Petco. 1.2 runs/team/game. I'd prefer to use
multiple years worth of numbers and that's why you have park factors.
Note that in road Padres games the teams averaged 4.91 runs. In all
NL games the average was 4.75. Padres games are higher scoring than
average. The Padres scored 5.10 runs/game on the road, higher than
the 4.71 NL average. This means good, not great offense. Padres gave
up 4.73 runs/game on the road just slightly better than the 4.78
average.
To sum up in a non Petco environment the offense was better than
average by a much wider margin than the pitching was better than
average.
To sum up the other point. Average runs you should expect an average
team to score at Petco is about 3.7, elsewhere it is about 4.7. When
you look at who is to blame/deserves credit between offense and
defense look at how far they deviate from these numbers. When Maddux
started and lost 9-0 the defense gave up 4.3 more runs than expect
(really closer to 4.0 since Phoenix is high offense environment) and
the offense scored 4.7 (really about 5.0) runs fewer than should have
been expected. So the offense was more to blame than the defense.
As to this years small sample size the average score at home is 3.1 to
3.5 (expect 3.7). On the road it is 3.4 to 5.7 (expect 4.7). So
park adjusted the offense is 19 runs worse than average and the
defense is 8 runs worse than average. So far this year the offense
has been the weak link.
Sorry for how dense this is, hope someone could follow it. I did this
for my sake as much as yours.
****ning the Light,
Marty Winn
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