On Apr 22, 7:58=A0am, Winn <marty.w...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On Apr 19, 1:34 am, "Swillabrew" <d...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Winn wrote:
> > > On Apr 18, 11:12 pm, Chris <> wrote:
> > >> On Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:07:03 -0700 (PDT), Padredog
>
> > >> <padredo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> > >>> ...6-0 D-backs in the 1st. =A0Maddox is 2-10 lifetime against
them.
>
> > >> No worries, we have two hits through 5 1/3.
>
> > > Who was worse the offense or the defense? =A0I say the blame is
> > > basically equal in this game. =A0The expectation/average performance
i=
s
> > > about 4.5 runs (except Petco where it might be 4.0). =A0So the
offense=
> > > scored 4.5 fewer runs than expected and the defense (mostly Maddux)
> > > gave up 4.5 runs more than expected.
>
> > Maddux got shelled, but it's pretty hard to win when you fail to score
a=
ny
> > runs. =A0I'm not sure where you got your expectation/average
performance=
> > numbers, but through 17 games the team has scored 50 runs, which works
o=
ut
> > to just under 3 per game. =A0We need a big bat in the heart of our
lineu=
p or
> > we might as well give up now.
>
> > Go Pads !
>
> In 2007 there were 12388 runs scored against NL clubs in 2594 team
> games. =A0That comes to 4.78 runs/game. =A0They scored 12208 in the same
> games =3D4.71. =A0Remember that interleague messes with the evenness of
> these numbers. =A0Also in a small number of these games a DH was used so
> maybe 4.7 is a good number to use instead of the 4.5 I quoted.
>
> Lets look at the Padres. =A0In 2007 games at Petco the Pads scored 323
> and gave up 278 =3D601 runs/162 team games =3D 3.71 runs/team/game.
=A0On
> the road they scored 418 and gave up 388 =3D 806/164 team games
> (remember extra game in Colorado) =3D 4.91 run/game. =A0Padres averaged
> 5.10/game on road, opponent averaged 4.73/game.
>
> Let's look at totals. =A0Padres scored 741/163 games =3D4.54 game.
> Opponents scored 666/163 games =3D 4.09 game. =A0Both teams together
> scored 1407/326 games =3D 4.32 runs/game.
>
> What does all of this mean. =A02008 is a pretty small sample size so
> far. =A0In 2007 you could expect a team in a Padres game to score 3.71
> runs/game at Petco and 4.91 on the road. =A0That's means that offense is
> suppressed 24% at Petco. =A01.2 runs/team/game. =A0I'd prefer to use
> multiple years worth of numbers and that's why you have park factors.
> Note that in road Padres games the teams averaged 4.91 runs. =A0In all
> NL games the average was 4.75. =A0Padres games are higher scoring than
> average. =A0The Padres scored 5.10 runs/game on the road, higher than
> the 4.71 NL average. =A0This means good, not great offense. =A0Padres
gave=
> up 4.73 runs/game on the road just slightly better than the 4.78
> average.
>
> To sum up in a non Petco environment the offense was better than
> average by a much wider margin than the pitching was better than
> average.
>
> To sum up the other point. =A0Average runs you should expect an average
> team to score at Petco is about 3.7, elsewhere it is about 4.7. =A0When
> you look at who is to blame/deserves credit between offense and
> defense look at how far they deviate from these numbers. =A0When Maddux
> started and lost 9-0 the defense gave up 4.3 more runs than expect
> (really closer to 4.0 since Phoenix is high offense environment) and
> the offense scored 4.7 (really about 5.0) runs fewer than should have
> been expected. =A0So the offense was more to blame than the defense.
>
> As to this years small sample size the average score at home is 3.1 to
> 3.5 (expect 3.7). =A0On the road it is 3.4 to 5.7 (expect 4.7). =A0 So
> park adjusted the offense is 19 runs worse than average and the
> defense is 8 runs worse than average. =A0 So far this year the offense
> has been the weak link.
>
> Sorry for how dense this is, hope someone could follow it. =A0I did this
> for my sake as much as yours.
Thanks. I think you explained that about as well as it could be
explained.
I wish it wasn't quite so complicated. When I try to tell people that
the Pads' offense was actually better than their pitching last season,
they look at me like I'm crazy. Launching into an explanation, along
the lines of what you wrote above, doesn't really help matters, and
doesn't make for very exciting conversation at parties. So now,
whenever I run into somebody complaining about the Padres' offense, I
try to change the subject to politics or religion, something less
likely to get me into an argument.
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