On Apr 22, 12:06 pm, "Swillabrew" <donts...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Winn wrote:
> > On Apr 19, 1:34 am, "Swillabrew" <d...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> >> Winn wrote:
> >>> On Apr 18, 11:12 pm, Chris <> wrote:
> >>>> On Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:07:03 -0700 (PDT), Padredog
>
> >>>> <padredo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> >>>>> ...6-0 D-backs in the 1st. Maddox is 2-10 lifetime against them.
>
> >>>> No worries, we have two hits through 5 1/3.
>
> >>> Who was worse the offense or the defense? I say the blame is
> >>> basically equal in this game. The expectation/average performance
> >>> is about 4.5 runs (except Petco where it might be 4.0). So the
> >>> offense scored 4.5 fewer runs than expected and the defense (mostly
> >>> Maddux) gave up 4.5 runs more than expected.
>
> >> Maddux got shelled, but it's pretty hard to win when you fail to
> >> score any runs. I'm not sure where you got your expectation/average
> >> performance numbers, but through 17 games the team has scored 50
> >> runs, which works out to just under 3 per game. We need a big bat
> >> in the heart of our lineup or we might as well give up now.
>
> >> Go Pads !
>
> > In 2007 there were 12388 runs scored against NL clubs in 2594 team
> > games. That comes to 4.78 runs/game. They scored 12208 in the same
> > games =4.71. Remember that interleague messes with the evenness of
> > these numbers. Also in a small number of these games a DH was used so
> > maybe 4.7 is a good number to use instead of the 4.5 I quoted.
>
> > Lets look at the Padres. In 2007 games at Petco the Pads scored 323
> > and gave up 278 =601 runs/162 team games = 3.71 runs/team/game. On
> > the road they scored 418 and gave up 388 = 806/164 team games
> > (remember extra game in Colorado) = 4.91 run/game. Padres averaged
> > 5.10/game on road, opponent averaged 4.73/game.
>
> > Let's look at totals. Padres scored 741/163 games =4.54 game.
> > Opponents scored 666/163 games = 4.09 game. Both teams together
> > scored 1407/326 games = 4.32 runs/game.
>
> > What does all of this mean. 2008 is a pretty small sample size so
> > far. In 2007 you could expect a team in a Padres game to score 3.71
> > runs/game at Petco and 4.91 on the road. That's means that offense is
> > suppressed 24% at Petco. 1.2 runs/team/game. I'd prefer to use
> > multiple years worth of numbers and that's why you have park factors.
> > Note that in road Padres games the teams averaged 4.91 runs. In all
> > NL games the average was 4.75. Padres games are higher scoring than
> > average. The Padres scored 5.10 runs/game on the road, higher than
> > the 4.71 NL average. This means good, not great offense. Padres gave
> > up 4.73 runs/game on the road just slightly better than the 4.78
> > average.
>
> > To sum up in a non Petco environment the offense was better than
> > average by a much wider margin than the pitching was better than
> > average.
>
> > To sum up the other point. Average runs you should expect an average
> > team to score at Petco is about 3.7, elsewhere it is about 4.7. When
> > you look at who is to blame/deserves credit between offense and
> > defense look at how far they deviate from these numbers. When Maddux
> > started and lost 9-0 the defense gave up 4.3 more runs than expect
> > (really closer to 4.0 since Phoenix is high offense environment) and
> > the offense scored 4.7 (really about 5.0) runs fewer than should have
> > been expected. So the offense was more to blame than the defense.
>
> > As to this years small sample size the average score at home is 3.1 to
> > 3.5 (expect 3.7). On the road it is 3.4 to 5.7 (expect 4.7). So
> > park adjusted the offense is 19 runs worse than average and the
> > defense is 8 runs worse than average. So far this year the offense
> > has been the weak link.
>
> > Sorry for how dense this is, hope someone could follow it. I did this
> > for my sake as much as yours.
>
> > ****ning the Light,
> >Marty Winn
>
> Wow, now that is truly showing the beauty of stats in baseball. Nice
work,
> Marty.
>
> You're right about this season being too small a sample to draw any
> conclusions yet, but one of the great/terrible things about stats is
they
> really only work out over the long haul. That fact is part of what
makes it
> so fun to second guess the moves a manager makes as he is usually taking
the
> long view while most of us fans are way too impatient for that & just
want
> to win now.
>
> If I'm grokking your numbers, last year we scored less than the league
> average while our pitchers & defense held our opponents to just barely
less
> than the league average. Given it's early in the season, but our
offense
> this year seems less robust than the 2007 version.
Well actually the Padres scored more runs on the road than the average
team. Add in Petco numbers and of course in total unadjusted numbers
they were below average. If you similarly don't adjust pitching runs
they were way below average but if you don't adjust the numbers the
Padres would have to really stink to not be better than average in
runs given up. Similarly they will have to be an amazing offense to
ever get to average runs scored. So far yeah the offense is about a
run (0.9) a game below an adjusted average.
****ning the Light,
Marty Winn
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